Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,213$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(313 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(24.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,135.7}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 36.8)}}\) (asimptote \(2,135.7\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $94$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(8.33 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103.6}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(103.6\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $285$ on 2020-05-13
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $27,909$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(1.61 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,043.1}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 52.8)}}\) (asimptote \(31,043.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,460$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(238 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,528.3}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 39.2)}}\) (asimptote \(3,528.3\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $19,478$ on 2020-05-13
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,175$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(1.71 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,856.8}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 30.7)}}\) (asimptote \(7,856.8\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $229$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(38.1 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{221.4}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 28.2)}}\) (asimptote \(221.4\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,914$ on 2020-05-13
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $6,054$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(540 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,319.9}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 45.3)}}\) (asimptote \(6,319.9\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $284$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(23.2 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(14.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{290.4}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 33.4)}}\) (asimptote \(290.4\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,470$ on 2020-05-13
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $10,865$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(1.41 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,840.6}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 38.3)}}\) (asimptote \(10,840.6\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $533$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(78.6 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{530.6}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 30.5)}}\) (asimptote \(530.6\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,471$ on 2020-05-13
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,802$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(434 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,801.9}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,801.9\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(2.78 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.2}{1 + 10^{-0.069 (t - 22.7)}}\) (asimptote \(10.2\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12$ on 2020-05-13
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $53,981$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(5.82 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{53,579.8}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 39.5)}}\) (asimptote \(53,579.8\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,843$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(832 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,599.4}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 35.9)}}\) (asimptote \(8,599.4\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $31,201$ on 2020-05-13
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $230,985$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(1.34 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{242,421.0}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 47.6)}}\) (asimptote \(242,421.0\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $33,264$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(2.61 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,059.8}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 39.2)}}\) (asimptote \(33,059.8\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $196,689$ on 2020-05-13
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $222,104$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(3.08 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{217,243.7}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 40.8)}}\) (asimptote \(217,243.7\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $31,106$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(3.66 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,354.1}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 42.2)}}\) (asimptote \(30,354.1\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $78,457$ on 2020-05-13
